Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa

MAP’s analysis “Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa” published in Nature (2026) has provided a policy-relevant evidence base for understanding how climate change could affect malaria burden across the continent to 2050. The study aimed to quantify both the ecological effects of changing temperature and rainfall on malaria transmission, and the disruptive effects of increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events on malaria control systems.

MAP estimated that climate change could result in more than 100 million additional malaria cases and more than 500,000 additional malaria deaths in Africa by 2050. The analysis found that the majority of this projected increase would be driven not by gradual changes in mosquito or parasite suitability, but by disruption to malaria prevention and treatment caused by extreme weather. If unmitigated, floods and cyclones may account for 79% of climate-driven increases in malaria cases and 93% of climate-driven increases in malaria deaths over the next 25 years.

These estimates highlighted that the largest climate-related increases in malaria burden are likely to occur when extreme weather damages homes, compromises mosquito net protection, disrupts access to timely diagnosis and treatment, and weakens the health system functions needed to sustain malaria control. By analysing 25 years of data on climate, malaria burden, interventions, socioeconomic indicators, and extreme weather patterns across Africa, MAP was able to distinguish between direct ecological shifts and the broader system-level disruptions that may persist for months or years after extreme weather events.

The findings have featured in the 2024 Africa Malaria Progress Report by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance [1], as well as being quoted in the Global Fund’s Eighth Replenishment Investment Case, in which $6B USD was ringfenced for health system climate resilience [2].

The analysis has been incorporated into an update of the Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication, and high-level material presented at an End Malaria Council high-level event. Additional outputs have been released as a white paper.

The findings have also been covered by media outlets such as The Economist [3] and The Guardian [4].