Swaziland DBS chart, Kate Battle

Improved intervention coverage models

Global Malaria Epidemiology

The Global Malaria Epidemiology team generates detailed models of ITN, effective treatment with an antimalarial, and IRS coverage to improve burden estimation models and attribute declines in malaria to specific interventions. Intervention modelling is currently focused on high-burden areas of sub-Saharan Africa, where the intervention most responsible for malaria declines is ITN.

Three major malaria interventions used globally are:

  • Insecticide treated nets (ITN)
  • Antimalarial drug coverage and efficacy, in particular artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT)
  • Indoor residual spraying (IRS)

The African ITN model uses data from net manufacturers, national malaria control programmes, and household surveys to produce pixel-level estimates of ITN coverage. Effective treatment with antimalarial drugs is modelled using results from spatiotemporal models on treatment seeking and data quantifying the availability, type, and failure rates of specific treatments.