Important new research from The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), published today in The Lancet, highlights the capacity of global aid to avert malaria cases and save lives – but only if current funding levels are maintained.

The research demonstrates the key role played by the US President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) in tackling malaria, finding more than 13 million cases could be averted and more than 100,000 lives saved this year alone if current investment in PMI was maintained at full strength.

PMI supports the procurement and distribution of malaria control measures in countries where malaria is endemic. It has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in malaria control programs via the US Agency for International Development since being launched under US President George W. Bush in 2005.

“Investment in malaria control over the last two decades has yielded enormous success in reducing the global burden of this disease,” senior author Professor Peter Gething said.

“In the current policy landscape, international aid budgets are under increasing pressure and difficult decisions must be made to protect the progress that has been made.”

The Lancet publication examined projected contributions of a fully-funded PMI to crucial malaria control measures, focusing on insecticide-treated bed nets, artemisinin-based combination therapies, seasonal malaria chemoprevention, and indoor residual spraying of insecticides.

Using high-resolution geospatial models, the paper –  led by MAP’s Head of Model Development Tasmin Symons, a Senior Research Fellow at Curtin University and Honorary Research Associate at The Kids; and Professor Gething, John Curtin Distinguished Professor at Curtin University and Co-Head of MAP –  estimated that PMI-supported interventions could avert 13.6 million malaria cases and 104,000 deaths across 27 African countries in 2025.

“In this study, the Malaria Atlas Project has used detailed data and mathematical modelling to evaluate the potential to avert cases and deaths via PMI – a vital tool in the global fight against malaria,” Professor Gething said.

“This work is intended to provide objective evidence to support decision makers at this time of significant reconfiguration in international aid policy.”

“It clearly shows the powerful impact of this initiative in reducing malaria burden and provides a tangible contribution to the work being done to safeguard global malaria budgets.”

Malaria is one of the world’s leading causes of disease and child deaths. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) carries the majority of the global malaria burden, with 95 per cent of malaria cases and deaths occurring in this region.

“Malaria caused more than half a million deaths in 2023, mostly in young children,” Dr Symons said.

“This study demonstrates the enormous contribution the President’s Malaria Initiative makes to reducing the toll of the disease among the world’s most vulnerable populations.”

The Malaria Atlas Project, based at The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University, uses innovative data and analytics to collaborate globally in the fight against malaria, providing valuable information to governments, global organisations and local health authorities in areas impacted by the disease.

The full paper can be read here (free access link live for 50 days).