New Malaria Atlas Project research published in Nature warns climate change could substantially increase malaria burden in Africa over the coming decades.

MAP estimates that a middle-of-the-road climate scenario could trigger more than 500,000 additional malaria deaths and over 100 million additional cases by 2050, including substantial impacts on children, predominantly due to damage and disruption caused by extreme weather events that undermine disease control efforts.

If unmitigated, the disruptive impacts of more frequent and severe floods and cyclones may account for 79 per cent and 93 per cent of climate-driven increases in malaria cases and deaths, respectively, over the next 25 years — far outweighing the more-often studied effects of gradual changes in temperature and rainfall on mosquito and parasite ecology.

MAP analysed 25 years of data on climate, malaria burden, control interventions, socioeconomic indicators, and extreme weather patterns across Africa. Using a statistical modelling framework linked to climate projections, they were able to quantify both the ecological effects of climate change and the disruptive impacts of increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather.

The largest projected increases in malaria burden will not arise from small changes in suitability, but when floods and cyclones damage homes, ruin bed nets, and interrupt access to timely diagnosis and treatment. If unmitigated, such disruptions could persist for months or even years after an extreme weather event, leading to increases in malaria burden.

Associate Professor Tasmin Symons –said “Most previous studies have focused on how climate change affects mosquitoes and parasites in isolation. What we show here is that the greatest climate threat to malaria control in Africa comes from disruption, when extreme weather repeatedly damages the housing, health services, and interventions that suppress transmission.”

“While changes in transmission ecology are real, they are comparatively small. When those changes are combined with repeated disruption to malaria control, the impacts become substantial, potentially resulting in more than 100 million additional cases and hundreds of thousands of additional deaths over the next 25 years.”

“If global ambitions for accelerated malaria reduction and eventual eradication are to remain achievable, climate resilience must be built directly into malaria policy and health system planning.”

Read the full article here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10015-z