PMI's impact 2005-2024

Since its inception in 2005, the U.S President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a key global role in reducing malaria transmission and improving health outcomes across partner countries. 

This new analysis, a collaboration between two independent modelling groups, quantifies PMI’s impact in sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2024. Using a shared data foundation, it applies two complementary frameworks – transmission-dynamic malariasimulation (Imperial College London) and geospatial modelling (Malaria Atlas Project) – to estimate the number of malaria cases and deaths averted by PMI-supported activities in Africa.  

The results are presented as an ensemble across both approaches, demonstrating robustness to differing structural assumptions and inference methods, and increasing confidence that the findings reflect real epidemiological signals.

Key findings 

1. PMI’s activities have facilitated widespread delivery of core malaria interventions (ITNs, SMC, IRS, and ACTs) across diverse settings since 2005 
2. This investment by PMI has contributed substantially to reductions in malaria transmission and mortality across partner countries in Africa: between 2005 and 2024 the procurement and distribution of malaria interventions by PMI averted an estimated 379M cases (273-606M 95% CI) and 1.1M malaria deaths (0.7- 1.5 M). 
3. Independent analysis by two different modelling groups align on PMI’s impact in sub-Saharan Africa: the independent estimates differ by fewer than 60,000 estimated averted malaria deaths, of a total 1.1M. 

The work was conducted in partnership between Imperial College London’s Translational Modelling Hub, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), and the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI).

Download the slide deck and supplementary report.